With the sharply increasement markup of ironstone to be 65%, there's a big demand for large amount of raw-materials products in China, India and global rising market. All of the ports in main export countries becomes crowded and jamed. The analyst thinks that the Sea Freight price's increasement should be nearly ineluctablely in 2008, and which will make the Asia consumer's demand covers up the impact caused by these factors like American Economic Slowness, Bullish of Petroleum Price and Fall of Stock Market etc.
At present, due to be afraid of the slowness of American Ecomonic, the key Sea Freight index of Baltic Sea Freight Exchange experienced strong undulation up and down, the highest track record reaches 11000 points last November and slumps under 6000 points this January and rebounds up from 5615 points end of January to around 7000 points.
The latest report from Large Amounts of Product Market Investigation Section in Standard Chartered Bank indicates: "We don't think the undulation of various index has something related with basic demand, but a majority of which is influenced by the Ironstone Negotiation between Brazil and China, and the cancelation of 30 large-scale containers, that's the short-term strike to Market."
An analyst who's unwilling to show his name denotes that the incresement suddenly and sharply of Ironstone Price Negotiation shows the driving demand from China and other Asia areas, and the crowed ports is another reason. He also indicates that the final annual negotiation result among Brazil Ironstone company, Korea and Japan steel factories as well as the great increasement of global coal are all the central factors to resume the motivity of Sea Freight market.
According as the data of International Iron and Steel Association, the global Iron and Steel raw materials export reaches 1.34 billion tons in 2007, it's the highest history record and exceed 7% in the continuous 5 years. And as a result of the coal embargo caused by China Snow Disaster, the expert considers China declared to forbid the export of Coal Mine in the end of January urges key import country like Japan and Korea can not but to search for farside import source, moreover the import fuel coal from Sea Freight occupys 40% of global demand, which must push the increasement of Sea Freight price. And at simultaneously, the crowded and jamed leading export countries like Brazil, Australia and South Africa will becomes more and more crowded and it's also one of the factors to result in the increasement of Sea Freight price.
Othermore, some dried food transportation expert denote that the demand of soybean in China in 2008 is also one of the factors to result in the increasement of Sea Freight price. Because of China Snow Disaster, over 40% rapeseed crop is damaged, so China imported 3440 thousand tons of soybean in January this year, which is the most one since June, 2006. Therefore the futures price of Chicago Futures Exchange creates the new highness in July.
But then, with the high increasement of raw materials demand, the misgivings that American Economic becomes slowly can not be cleared up, this is also the important reason that Sea Freight index didn't appear large increasement sharply. The investigation about economist from Reuters at present, and the latest forcast of OECD shows that the slowness of global economy will become more severe than before and at the same time add the misgivings about American Economy.
Due to the inhibitory effect to Sea Freight price in a way, caused by global economy, currently the BDI of Baltic Sea to reflect the dry bulk cargo market situation, the BCI of Baltic Sea which is mainly to trace those sails to ship mine products, its capability over 150 thousand tons, and the BHI which is trace those sails to ship primary products, its capability around 80 thousand tons etc, all descend and decline these recently days. But generally the analyst consider it to fluctuate shortdatedly only. All the relevant commodity index all shows that the market demand is still strong though the global economy grows up slowly, the demand of China and Asia can not be ignored yet.
In the past one year, the business sum of those product items derived from carriage increases sharply and strongly, and the stock market descend results in Bank and Hedge Fund turn around to the market which is not influenced by the credit contraction or economy slowness. Carriage long-dated contract business sum adds to 150%, the market undulation and transportation cost raise largely creats the opportunity for speculation, and make the Hedge dealing become extremely significant. Carriage long-dated contract makes the sails owners and operators can lock up the carriage price in advance.
Othermore, the participance of Bank and Hedge Fund drives strongly the development of this market. In the past one year, Citi Group, Merrill Lynch, Macquarie Bank, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley, Hedge Fund GMI and AkuilaOkeanos all set up the business about product derived from carriage.
From丗Securities Times